Football Stats: The Premiership's great entertainers (or the teams that are involved in a high number of over 2.5 goals matches)
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Supreme number-cruncher Andrew Atherley tells us which Premiership teams are involved in a particularly high number of over 2.5 goals matches and why that trend is unlikely to continue till the end of the season.
Newcastle United and Manchester City have been the teams to watch for exciting games in the Premier League this season, closely followed by Hull City and West Bromwich Albion. Yet the evidence from previous seasons is that this is a trend that is unlikely to endure through the second half of the season.
Newcastle have had the highest number of games with +2.5 goals this season, 16 out of 21 (76%) going over that mark. Manchester City are just behind with 15 out of 20 (75%), while Hull have had 67% and West Brom 62%. A percentage above 60%, either for + or -2.5 goals, generally provides a rule of thumb for punters to spot teams with a marked tendency on the goals front, but this season has produced an exceptional trend towards higher scoring by a larger than usual number of teams.
This is the only season in the past 10 that five teams reached the halfway point of the campaign with 60%-plus games with +2.5 goals. Portsmouth completed the quintet, having had 12 out of 19 (63%) games with +2.5 goals in the first half of the season, though they fell back a little to 60% after starting the second half of the season with a 1-0 defeat at Arsenal.
A total of 21 teams in the past 10 seasons have had 60%-plus games with +2.5 goals in the first half of the season, but in most cases their goals figures have gone the other way in the second half of the campaign. Eighteen of those 21 teams had fewer games with +2.5 goals in the second half of the season, with 13 of the 21 having a majority of -2.5 goals in the second half of the season. Overall, those teams have averaged 48% with +2.5 goals in the second half of the season, well down on their earlier figures.
The turnaround in those figures is another lesson to punters of how quickly patterns can change in football, and indicates that the goals figures for games involving Newcastle, Manchester City, Hull, West Brom and Portsmouth are likely to decrease in the second half of the season.
Supporting evidence for that view comes from the fact that few teams - and quite often only one per season - end up with a figure in excess of 60% +2.5 goals over the course of an entire Premier League season. Only 13 teams have done that in the past 10 seasons, so it is highly unlikely that Newcastle, Manchester City, Hull, West Brom and Portsmouth - who are on course for 60%-plus at their current rate - can all maintain that pace. One might do, but even that is open to some doubt.
There is an interesting pattern among the 13 teams that have achieved a figure in excess of 60% +2.5 goals over the course of an entire campaign in the past 10 seasons. Ten of those teams finished in the top half of the table, while the other three were relegated - not one finished the season anywhere from places 10th to 17th, yet Newcastle (11th), Portsmouth (14th) and Manchester City (15th) are in that zone at the moment.
The margins between the middle to low-ranking clubs are narrow this season, and Manchester City are only four points off a top-half place, yet it may well take a defensive improvement for any of that trio to climb out of the bottom half. If that is forthcoming, it would not be a surprise for goals to decrease in line with a better defensive record.
In (eighth) at the moment, but they have been edging closer to the bottom half in the past couple of months and on current form they no longer look a good bet to finish in the top half of the table.
While those doubts over Hull's top-half credentials point to a possible decrease in goals (their two games since the halfway point of the season both had -2.5 goals), West Brom do fit the previous pattern in that they are in serious danger of relegation.
Currently bottom of the table, West Brom are the lowest scorers in the Premier League with 17 goals and clearly their high-scoring games owe much to the fact that they have the worst defensive record with 37 goals conceded - notably, all five of the teams with the highest-scoring games in the first half of the season rank in the bottom 10 on defence, with four ranking in the bottom six.
A closer look at West Brom's results reveals that they have had nine out of 12 (75%) +2.5 goals against current top-half teams, so that type of match-up might well continue to produce high-scoring games through the second half of the season. Against current bottom-half teams, West Brom have had only four out of nine (44%) +2.5 goals.
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By
Betfair.com
Click here to view market
Supreme number-cruncher Andrew Atherley tells us which Premiership teams are involved in a particularly high number of over 2.5 goals matches and why that trend is unlikely to continue till the end of the season.
Newcastle United and Manchester City have been the teams to watch for exciting games in the Premier League this season, closely followed by Hull City and West Bromwich Albion. Yet the evidence from previous seasons is that this is a trend that is unlikely to endure through the second half of the season.
Newcastle have had the highest number of games with +2.5 goals this season, 16 out of 21 (76%) going over that mark. Manchester City are just behind with 15 out of 20 (75%), while Hull have had 67% and West Brom 62%. A percentage above 60%, either for + or -2.5 goals, generally provides a rule of thumb for punters to spot teams with a marked tendency on the goals front, but this season has produced an exceptional trend towards higher scoring by a larger than usual number of teams.
This is the only season in the past 10 that five teams reached the halfway point of the campaign with 60%-plus games with +2.5 goals. Portsmouth completed the quintet, having had 12 out of 19 (63%) games with +2.5 goals in the first half of the season, though they fell back a little to 60% after starting the second half of the season with a 1-0 defeat at Arsenal.
A total of 21 teams in the past 10 seasons have had 60%-plus games with +2.5 goals in the first half of the season, but in most cases their goals figures have gone the other way in the second half of the campaign. Eighteen of those 21 teams had fewer games with +2.5 goals in the second half of the season, with 13 of the 21 having a majority of -2.5 goals in the second half of the season. Overall, those teams have averaged 48% with +2.5 goals in the second half of the season, well down on their earlier figures.
The turnaround in those figures is another lesson to punters of how quickly patterns can change in football, and indicates that the goals figures for games involving Newcastle, Manchester City, Hull, West Brom and Portsmouth are likely to decrease in the second half of the season.
Supporting evidence for that view comes from the fact that few teams - and quite often only one per season - end up with a figure in excess of 60% +2.5 goals over the course of an entire Premier League season. Only 13 teams have done that in the past 10 seasons, so it is highly unlikely that Newcastle, Manchester City, Hull, West Brom and Portsmouth - who are on course for 60%-plus at their current rate - can all maintain that pace. One might do, but even that is open to some doubt.
There is an interesting pattern among the 13 teams that have achieved a figure in excess of 60% +2.5 goals over the course of an entire campaign in the past 10 seasons. Ten of those teams finished in the top half of the table, while the other three were relegated - not one finished the season anywhere from places 10th to 17th, yet Newcastle (11th), Portsmouth (14th) and Manchester City (15th) are in that zone at the moment.
The margins between the middle to low-ranking clubs are narrow this season, and Manchester City are only four points off a top-half place, yet it may well take a defensive improvement for any of that trio to climb out of the bottom half. If that is forthcoming, it would not be a surprise for goals to decrease in line with a better defensive record.
In (eighth) at the moment, but they have been edging closer to the bottom half in the past couple of months and on current form they no longer look a good bet to finish in the top half of the table.
While those doubts over Hull's top-half credentials point to a possible decrease in goals (their two games since the halfway point of the season both had -2.5 goals), West Brom do fit the previous pattern in that they are in serious danger of relegation.
Currently bottom of the table, West Brom are the lowest scorers in the Premier League with 17 goals and clearly their high-scoring games owe much to the fact that they have the worst defensive record with 37 goals conceded - notably, all five of the teams with the highest-scoring games in the first half of the season rank in the bottom 10 on defence, with four ranking in the bottom six.
A closer look at West Brom's results reveals that they have had nine out of 12 (75%) +2.5 goals against current top-half teams, so that type of match-up might well continue to produce high-scoring games through the second half of the season. Against current bottom-half teams, West Brom have had only four out of nine (44%) +2.5 goals.
Got a question about Betfair? Try our Betfair Education Department or post your question here.
As for Canadians (and other currently accepted players):
Account Help is available 24/7.
By Email: info@betfair.com ('Canada' in the Subject Line)
By Phone: 1-866-381-7119 (Free from Canadian landlines)
Click here to see a demo of How Betfair Works (Our standard FREE $25 Bet Code for Canadians is in there)
Click here to find out about Canadian Payment Methods
More Betting Tips on the Betfair Canada Blog
US/Decimal Odds converter
((Betfair does not currently allow US Citizens to play on Betfair.com))
